The Election

[SANS CULOTTE]

How many seats will Labor lose? Who would like to nominate the NEW Coalition seats? Should we have a prize of a bottle of Red for the member who gets the sums right? And who will be the new leader of the ALP after the poll?

[Ebenezer]

We've already done our bit in Canberra to keep the Liberal scum out of power here.
Unfortunately NSW needs Labor to lose in order to renew. I predict they will lose by 15 seats and Kanealy(spelling) will remain as leader.

[Liverpudlian]

We've already done our bit in Canberra to keep the Liberal scum out of power here.
Unfortunately NSW needs Labor to lose in order to renew. I predict they will lose by 15 seats and Kanealy(spelling) will remain as leader.

They stand more chance of losing the better members than the crap that should be cleaned out.

[JimmyD]

How many seats will Labor lose? Who would like to nominate the NEW Coalition seats? Should we have a prize of a bottle of Red for the member who gets the sums right? And who will be the new leader of the ALP after the poll?

Red? Yes please!

Federally, I think it's hard to say, as the show-down between the miners & the Spokesparty for Dirt against Labor is still playing out. Once we have a better idea about whose side the majority of the public agrees with, then we'll have a better idea of the seats in play in Qld, SA and WA. A worst case scenario would suggest the loss of possibly 12 seats in states that the media and the miners assert that the RSPT puts at risk (Hasluck, Perth and Brand in WA, Kingston, Makin, Hindmarsh and Wakefield in SA and Leichhardt, Dawson, Flynn, Longman and Forde in Qld). This gives the Lib/Nats 75 seats, in which case they only need two more seats for an outright majority. Robertson on the NSW Central Coast provides an easy target, and this is just one example.

All this is of course assuming that the RSPT is having the resonance in the electorate that the media, the miners and the Libs insist it is. There has been some evidence to suggest that this is not the case, such as the polls showing high levels of uncertainty about the tax, and in the case of Qld, only a slim majority opposing, for all the hyperbole and even outright lies by the anti-tax brigade.

My opinion, (for what it's worth) is that the LNP will make gains in WA but little elsewhere. Apart from that, I think that Robertson on the Central Coast a la Belinda Neal, is all but a lost cause.

And against the grain of the current media narrative I think that Labor and/or the Greens will increase their vote significantly in small "l" liberal seats like North Sydney, Bennelong and maybe (here's hoping ) Warringah in NSW and seats like Higgins and Kooyong in Vic. They won't win enough votes (with the exception of Bennelong obviously) to win any of these seats, but they will become marginal seats.

As for a prediction as to the number of seats... I have no idea! I think the election is too far away at this point in time to make an educated guess. Might as well try and guess how many grains of sand there are on Bondi Beach.

[Landslide]

Sans Culotte: I'm terrible at predicting election results usually, but based on last night's disaster for Labor in Penrith, they'll be lucky if they have a lower house representation bigger than 25 after March 2011. 
Keneally wouldn't stay on as Opposition Leader, so I guess it'd be handed on to Michael Daley or John Robertson.

[JimmyD]

Oops just realised this was a state thread and not federal, thus rendering my previous post completely irrelevant... there goes the red... ah well.

I think I'll save time and predict which seats Labor won't lose!

Labor will probably hold onto Canterbury, Lakemba, Bankstown, Auburn, Granville, Fairfield, Cabramatta, Liverpool, Macquarie Fields, Smithfield and maybe Mount Druitt and Toongabbie.

Heffron is a big if, as are the three Illawarra seats. I think that pretty much all other seats are in play, and will probably be lost. So all up I believe they'll have about 12-16 seats(!) after the election... a veritable bloodbath.

[SANS CULOTTE]

Oops just realised this was a state thread and not federal, thus rendering my previous post completely irrelevant... there goes the red... ah well.

I think I'll save time and predict which seats Labor won't lose!

Labor will probably hold onto Canterbury, Lakemba, Bankstown, Auburn, Granville, Fairfield, Cabramatta, Liverpool, Macquarie Fields, Smithfield and maybe Mount Druitt and Toongabbie.

Heffron is a big if, as are the three Illawarra seats. I think that pretty much all other seats are in play, and will probably be lost. So all up I believe they'll have about 12-16 seats(!) after the election... a veritable bloodbath.

              Bloody ,yes. However Jimmy I would claim Marrickville, Strathfield, Kiama, the Newcastle seats,Drummoyne and a few others. The ALP can't win but the Libs are still not trusted.

[JimmyD]

Oops just realised this was a state thread and not federal, thus rendering my previous post completely irrelevant... there goes the red... ah well.

I think I'll save time and predict which seats Labor won't lose!

Labor will probably hold onto Canterbury, Lakemba, Bankstown, Auburn, Granville, Fairfield, Cabramatta, Liverpool, Macquarie Fields, Smithfield and maybe Mount Druitt and Toongabbie.

Heffron is a big if, as are the three Illawarra seats. I think that pretty much all other seats are in play, and will probably be lost. So all up I believe they'll have about 12-16 seats(!) after the election... a veritable bloodbath.

              Bloody ,yes. However Jimmy I would claim Marrickville, Strathfield, Kiama, the Newcastle seats,Drummoyne and a few others. The ALP can't win but the Libs are still not trusted.

I think Marrickville will be won by the Greens and I think Strathfield and Drummoyne are very vulnerable to the Liberals in this electoral climate. If you look at the federal level, Srathfield (the suburb) has some very strong Liberal voting areas, as do the suburbs that make up Drummoyne.

I didn't clarify in my previous post, but I don't think the Illawarra seats are vulnerable to the Liberals, but rather Independent candidates. Likewise, I think the Hunter seats are very vulnerable to Independents. Lake Macquarie is already held by an Independent, Newcastle is incredibly vulnerable, with two Independents polling over 20% each, Charlestown and Maitland had Independents poll over 25%, while Wallsend and Cessnock were only contested by the Parties.

Kiama is that sleaze ball Matt Brown's seat. I don't think he'd be that popular, but I'm not sure. The more pertinent question is whether David Campbell will get the sympathy vote in his seat of Keira and whether it would be enough to stem the tide.